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When Analysts Warn About A Dividend Cut, Should You Listen?

Published Wed, 30 Mar 2016 07:48:35 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

INTRODUCTION
Back in January, I was catching up on the financial news and found this statement released by a J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) analyst in which he claimed that Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) would likely need to cut its dividend. I was surprised by this claim. While reading the comments section, many shareholders were quick to reject this assertion, defended the stock, claimed the analyst was attempting to profit from a short position and reiterated their long term holdings. As a result the stock price dropped 7% on the day. Much to my surprise, POT did cut the dividend three days later, the first time since the IPO in 1989.
As I thought about this event, I had a few questions such as:
Were there not any warning signs before this statement? Was anyone out there not warning about the possibility of a dividend cut before this? How could those shareholders have been so sure about POT and not have seen this coming?
Although I had already completed a series about companies that cut their dividends ( Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4), I had never considered if there were any warnings prior to a dividend cut. This article presents the results of my review of Seeking Alpha contributors and financial analyst's issuance of dividend cut warnings.
METHODOLOGY
My analysis contains 100 companies that have cut their dividends. I have included the majority of companies listed in David Fish's Champion, Challenger and Contender workbook as my base... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
BRISTOW GROUP 0.49   0.0 -10.17 0.00 51.94
EV ENERGY PARTNERS 0.63   0.0 0.00 0.30 45.45
BAYTEX ENERGY TRUST 2.14   0.0 -0.67 0.00 40.19
CARBO CERAMICS 3.32   0.0 -2.76 0.00 11.94
DYNEX CAPITAL 6.20   310.0 0.02 0.72 11.69
PROSPECT CAPITAL 6.72   13.4 0.50 0.72 10.81
CENTURYLINK 11.59   0.0 -1.63 1.00 8.42
AVON PRODUCTS 2.96   0.0 -0.13 0.00 8.25
CEDAR FAIR LP 53.82   24.4 2.21 3.70 6.94
GANNETT 9.38   78.2 0.12 0.64 6.66
KIMCO REALTY 17.75   17.4 1.02 1.12 6.56
RIO TINTO 59.43   0.0 0.00 3.60 5.91
UNITED-GUARDIAN 19.26   0.0 0.00 1.10 5.67
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL 76.14   8.1 9.37 6.93 5.31
SEAGATE TECH 46.99   8.2 5.76 2.52 5.15
KINROSS GOLD 3.24   0.0 -0.02 0.00 5.08
INVESTORS REAL ESTATE 58.48   6.6 8.90 2.80 4.86
ASTRAZENECA 38.72   22.8 1.70 1.86 4.80
TEEKAY 4.02   0.0 -0.79 0.22 4.62
GETTY REALTY 32.34   27.6 1.17 1.40 4.47
WASHINGTON REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST 28.45   91.8 0.31 1.20 4.39
CHINA MOBILE LTD 47.26   0.0 0.00 1.60 4.38
FNB CORP 11.97   10.5 1.14 0.48 4.32
TELEFONICA 8.16   11.5 0.71 0.36 4.24
WATSCO 160.00   25.0 6.41 6.40 4.24
LEGG MASON 33.45   0.0 -0.12 1.36 4.14
CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST SBI MD 27.67   39.5 0.70 1.10 4.05
KEYCORP 17.13   10.0 1.72 0.68 4.00
BHP BILLITON LTD 53.30   0.0 0.00 2.20 3.99
KINDER MORGAN 20.08   29.5 0.68 1.00 3.99
PEOPLES BANCORP 32.43   13.0 2.50 1.36 3.85
WELLS FARGO 47.48   10.5 4.52 1.80 3.81
PFIZER 39.37   21.2 1.86 1.44 3.69
VILLAGE SUPER MARKET 28.72   15.7 1.83 1.00 3.69
REGIONS FINANCIAL 15.38   9.9 1.56 0.56 3.67
CNOOC 186.15   0.0 0.00 9.13 3.55
BOARDWALK PIPELINE 11.27   9.7 1.16 0.40 3.45
COMERICA 77.24   10.0 7.72 2.68 3.42
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL 36.12   10.8 3.34 1.20 3.37
COPA 79.62   38.1 2.09 2.60 3.30
BB&T 49.84   12.6 3.94 1.62 3.29
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP 28.28   8.9 3.17 0.88 3.19
FULTON FINANCIAL 16.98   13.8 1.23 0.52 3.17
WESBANCO 40.34   14.0 2.89 1.24 3.17
SUNTRUST BANKS 63.82   11.2 5.69 2.00 3.16
UDR 44.46   60.1 0.74 1.37 3.15
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP 16.96   13.8 1.23 0.52 3.14
PITNEY BOWES 7.15   6.0 1.19 0.20 2.89
S&T BANCORP 39.31   13.5 2.92 1.08 2.81
STATE STREET 66.13   11.1 5.97 1.88 2.69
NOBLE 2.91   0.0 -3.59 0.00 2.60
COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV 63.69   18.5 3.45 1.54 2.59
FASTENAL 71.35   26.4 2.70 1.72 2.45
LINCOLN NATIONAL 65.51   8.9 7.38 1.48 2.25
KKR & CO LP 23.83   12.0 1.99 0.50 2.13
STURM RUGER & CO 56.07   19.5 2.88 1.12 2.08
BANK OF AMERICA 30.02   11.2 2.69 0.60 2.00
ANADARKO PETROLEUM 71.40   59.5 1.20 1.20 1.87
AVERY DENNISON 110.80   21.0 5.27 2.08 1.83
CONOCOPHILLIPS 64.70   12.1 5.34 1.22 1.82
TRANSALTA 6.81   0.0 -0.66 0.12 1.71
LA-Z-BOY CHAIR 32.78   15.3 2.14 0.52 1.58
NOBLE ENERGY 27.58   0.0 -0.16 0.48 1.58
FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD 13.58   8.9 1.53 0.20 1.47
CENOVUS ENERGY 10.19   0.0 -1.67 0.15 1.46
RENT-A-CENTER 24.36   162.4 0.15 0.32 1.37
MASCO 39.99   16.9 2.37 0.48 1.21
TEXTAINER GROUP 10.05   11.6 0.87 0.00 1.21
CIMAREX ENERGY 70.86   8.5 8.32 0.80 1.02
VULCAN MATERIALS 124.61   32.4 3.85 1.24 1.01
ENCANA 7.53   6.7 1.12 0.08 1.00
ENSCO 16.34   0.0 -5.88 0.16 0.99
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND 9.47   8.1 1.17 0.09 0.95
NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES 109.65   17.1 6.42 1.00 0.93
YAMANA GOLD 2.20   0.0 -0.30 0.02 0.92
DEVON ENERGY 34.49   5.4 6.41 0.36 0.91
RANGE RESOURCES 9.76   0.0 -7.27 0.08 0.81
GOLDCORP 11.19   0.0 -4.77 0.00 0.70
GULF ISLAND FABRICATION 8.70   0.0 -1.35 0.04 0.45
GENERAL ELECTRIC 9.32   0.0 -2.62 0.04 0.43
GAMCO INVESTORS 21.32   5.2 4.07 0.08 0.38
NRG ENERGY 41.35   50.4 0.82 0.12 0.29
ENERGEN 70.21   16.2 4.33 0.00 0.12
HUSKY ENERGY 10.84   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
PDL BIOPHARMA 3.37   0.0 -0.46 0.00 0.00
POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN 20.65   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
SEADRILL 9.66   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
SUPERVALU 32.49   98.4 0.33 0.00 0.00

BRISTOW GROUP - BRS
BRISTOW GROUP - BRS  


Older articles featuring Bristow Group (BRS):
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/30/2016
12 Months Of High-Yield Bond Reviews From Durig Capital - The Recap
Dividends In Danger? Let's Restart This Series
Dividend Champions 100th Edition
Sampling Dividend Cuts In February 2016
Dividend Cuts Piling Up
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/28/2015
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 6/3/2015
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 11/25/2014
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/27/2014

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