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When Analysts Warn About A Dividend Cut, Should You Listen?

Published Wed, 30 Mar 2016 07:48:35 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

INTRODUCTION
Back in January, I was catching up on the financial news and found this statement released by a J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) analyst in which he claimed that Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) would likely need to cut its dividend. I was surprised by this claim. While reading the comments section, many shareholders were quick to reject this assertion, defended the stock, claimed the analyst was attempting to profit from a short position and reiterated their long term holdings. As a result the stock price dropped 7% on the day. Much to my surprise, POT did cut the dividend three days later, the first time since the IPO in 1989.
As I thought about this event, I had a few questions such as:
Were there not any warning signs before this statement? Was anyone out there not warning about the possibility of a dividend cut before this? How could those shareholders have been so sure about POT and not have seen this coming?
Although I had already completed a series about companies that cut their dividends ( Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4), I had never considered if there were any warnings prior to a dividend cut. This article presents the results of my review of Seeking Alpha contributors and financial analyst's issuance of dividend cut warnings.
METHODOLOGY
My analysis contains 100 companies that have cut their dividends. I have included the majority of companies listed in David Fish's Champion, Challenger and Contender workbook as my base... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
BRISTOW GROUP 0.29   0.0 -10.17 0.00 97.87
BAYTEX ENERGY TRUST 1.46   0.0 -0.44 0.00 60.55
EV ENERGY PARTNERS 0.63   0.0 0.00 0.30 45.45
CARBO CERAMICS 1.04   0.0 -2.66 0.00 32.26
DYNEX CAPITAL 5.80   0.0 -1.53 2.16 12.52
PROSPECT CAPITAL 6.33   10.6 0.60 0.72 10.96
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL 64.40   8.6 7.47 6.93 10.73
CENTURYLINK 11.10   0.0 -7.51 1.00 9.29
GANNETT 8.37   418.5 0.02 0.64 7.66
CEDAR FAIR LP 49.47   22.4 2.21 3.70 7.51
TEEKAY 3.07   0.0 -1.42 0.22 7.10
AVON PRODUCTS 3.82   0.0 -0.16 0.00 6.17
KIMCO REALTY 18.73   19.5 0.96 1.12 6.12
RIO TINTO 61.57   0.0 0.00 3.60 5.97
CNOOC 157.21   0.0 0.00 9.13 5.78
SEAGATE TECH 44.26   8.6 5.14 2.52 5.77
UNITED-GUARDIAN 18.96   0.0 0.00 1.10 5.74
KINDER MORGAN 20.52   30.2 0.68 1.00 4.81
INVESTORS REAL ESTATE 60.25   0.0 0.00 2.80 4.70
ASTRAZENECA 39.67   23.8 1.67 1.86 4.66
KINROSS GOLD 3.57   0.0 -0.05 0.00 4.58
GETTY REALTY 31.44   26.4 1.19 1.40 4.52
PITNEY BOWES 4.43   4.9 0.90 0.20 4.52
NOBLE 1.69   0.0 -3.30 0.00 4.44
WASHINGTON REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST 27.58   131.3 0.21 1.20 4.38
PEOPLES BANCORP 32.15   12.9 2.50 1.36 4.25
TELEFONICA 8.42   11.4 0.74 0.45 4.20
FNB CORP 11.43   10.0 1.14 0.48 4.15
BHP BILLITON LTD 54.97   0.0 0.00 2.20 4.02
KEYCORP 17.07   9.9 1.72 0.68 3.94
VILLAGE SUPER MARKET 26.22   15.2 1.73 1.00 3.89
WELLS FARGO 45.29   10.0 4.52 1.80 3.89
WATSCO 164.50   25.7 6.41 6.40 3.89
REGIONS FINANCIAL 14.49   9.3 1.56 0.56 3.87
COMERICA 70.21   9.1 7.72 2.68 3.83
CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST SBI MD 28.55   39.6 0.72 1.10 3.79
CHINA MOBILE LTD 43.47   0.0 0.00 1.60 3.65
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL 32.96   9.9 3.34 1.20 3.63
LEGG MASON 36.79   0.0 -0.42 1.60 3.62
WESBANCO 35.36   12.2 2.89 1.24 3.51
BOARDWALK PIPELINE 11.27   9.7 1.16 0.40 3.45
STATE STREET 55.03   9.2 5.97 1.88 3.41
PFIZER 42.50   21.8 1.95 1.44 3.37
BB&T 50.06   12.7 3.94 1.62 3.27
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP 27.39   8.6 3.17 0.88 3.25
FULTON FINANCIAL 16.08   13.1 1.23 0.52 3.23
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP 16.51   13.4 1.23 0.52 3.16
SUNTRUST BANKS 64.07   11.3 5.69 2.00 3.12
UDR 46.35   89.1 0.52 1.37 2.98
COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV 64.18   18.4 3.48 1.86 2.87
S&T BANCORP 37.58   12.9 2.92 1.08 2.86
COPA 96.25   98.2 0.98 2.60 2.74
FASTENAL 31.65   23.4 1.35 0.86 2.66
LINCOLN NATIONAL 63.43   9.1 6.96 1.48 2.31
NOBLE ENERGY 20.77   0.0 -1.95 0.48 2.25
STURM RUGER & CO 52.48   18.7 2.81 1.16 2.24
ENSCO 6.62   0.0 -6.35 0.16 2.23
BANK OF AMERICA 28.04   10.4 2.69 0.60 2.15
CONOCOPHILLIPS 58.82   9.5 6.19 1.22 2.08
KKR & CO LP 24.31   8.3 2.94 0.50 2.08
AVERY DENNISON 110.39   51.8 2.13 2.32 2.07
FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD 10.83   10.0 1.08 0.20 1.88
CENOVUS ENERGY 8.47   0.0 -1.18 0.15 1.84
TRANSALTA 6.53   0.0 -1.01 0.12 1.84
ANADARKO PETROLEUM 69.83   73.5 0.95 1.20 1.72
LA-Z-BOY CHAIR 30.88   14.4 2.14 0.52 1.69
ENCANA 4.66   6.1 0.76 0.08 1.57
CIMAREX ENERGY 54.60   8.2 6.62 0.80 1.47
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND 6.55   5.8 1.14 0.09 1.35
MASCO 39.04   17.0 2.29 0.48 1.27
DEVON ENERGY 25.77   4.3 6.05 0.36 1.26
RENT-A-CENTER 25.90   39.8 0.65 0.32 1.23
TEXTAINER GROUP 9.89   11.8 0.84 0.00 1.22
RANGE RESOURCES 6.74   0.0 -7.27 0.08 1.17
NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES 94.24   0.0 0.00 1.00 1.08
YAMANA GOLD 2.06   0.0 -0.13 0.02 1.02
VULCAN MATERIALS 132.22   33.6 3.94 1.24 0.95
GOLDCORP 11.19   0.0 -4.77 0.00 0.70
GULF ISLAND FABRICATION 7.36   0.0 -1.20 0.04 0.53
GAMCO INVESTORS 18.34   4.8 3.83 0.08 0.46
GENERAL ELECTRIC 10.31   0.0 -2.07 0.04 0.40
NRG ENERGY 34.42   20.6 1.67 0.12 0.35
ENERGEN 70.21   16.2 4.33 0.00 0.12
HUSKY ENERGY 9.63   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
PDL BIOPHARMA 2.91   0.0 -0.42 0.00 0.00
POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN 20.65   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
SEADRILL 3.44   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
SUPERVALU 32.49   98.4 0.33 0.00 0.00

BRISTOW GROUP - BRS
BRISTOW GROUP - BRS  


Older articles featuring Bristow Group (BRS):
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/30/2016
12 Months Of High-Yield Bond Reviews From Durig Capital - The Recap
Dividends In Danger? Let's Restart This Series
Dividend Champions 100th Edition
Sampling Dividend Cuts In February 2016
Dividend Cuts Piling Up
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/28/2015
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 6/3/2015
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 11/25/2014
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/27/2014

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