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When Analysts Warn About A Dividend Cut, Should You Listen?

Published Wed, 30 Mar 2016 07:48:35 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

INTRODUCTION
Back in January, I was catching up on the financial news and found this statement released by a J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) analyst in which he claimed that Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) would likely need to cut its dividend. I was surprised by this claim. While reading the comments section, many shareholders were quick to reject this assertion, defended the stock, claimed the analyst was attempting to profit from a short position and reiterated their long term holdings. As a result the stock price dropped 7% on the day. Much to my surprise, POT did cut the dividend three days later, the first time since the IPO in 1989.
As I thought about this event, I had a few questions such as:
Were there not any warning signs before this statement? Was anyone out there not warning about the possibility of a dividend cut before this? How could those shareholders have been so sure about POT and not have seen this coming?
Although I had already completed a series about companies that cut their dividends ( Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4), I had never considered if there were any warnings prior to a dividend cut. This article presents the results of my review of Seeking Alpha contributors and financial analyst's issuance of dividend cut warnings.
METHODOLOGY
My analysis contains 100 companies that have cut their dividends. I have included the majority of companies listed in David Fish's Champion, Challenger and Contender workbook as my base... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
BRISTOW GROUP 0.29   0.0 -10.17 0.00 97.87
BAYTEX ENERGY TRUST 1.44   0.0 -0.14 0.00 65.28
EV ENERGY PARTNERS 0.63   0.0 0.00 0.30 45.45
CARBO CERAMICS 2.68   0.0 -2.68 0.00 15.56
DYNEX CAPITAL 15.16   0.0 -10.26 1.80 12.06
PROSPECT CAPITAL 6.71   16.8 0.40 0.72 10.76
CENTURYLINK 13.53   0.0 -7.43 1.00 7.94
CEDAR FAIR LP 54.70   18.4 2.98 3.70 6.69
BHP BILLITON LTD 50.96   0.0 0.00 3.12 6.20
CNOOC 150.64   0.0 0.00 7.53 5.95
GANNETT 10.82   98.4 0.11 0.64 5.89
UNITED-GUARDIAN 19.36   0.0 0.00 1.10 5.74
RIO TINTO 53.69   0.0 0.00 3.02 5.71
KIMCO REALTY 20.39   25.5 0.80 1.12 5.57
AVON PRODUCTS 4.59   0.0 -0.13 0.00 5.33
KINDER MORGAN 20.42   20.6 0.99 1.00 4.94
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL 61.69   9.6 6.42 2.71 4.91
TELEFONICA 7.41   10.2 0.73 0.35 4.71
SEAGATE TECH 56.30   7.9 7.11 2.52 4.55
PITNEY BOWES 4.49   5.8 0.77 0.20 4.51
GETTY REALTY 32.62   27.6 1.18 1.40 4.40
WASHINGTON REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST 28.22   313.6 0.09 1.20 4.37
FNB CORP 11.47   9.8 1.17 0.48 4.28
PEOPLES BANCORP 32.68   12.8 2.55 1.36 4.27
WELLS FARGO 48.65   10.0 4.84 2.04 4.22
COMERICA 64.76   8.3 7.79 2.68 4.18
CHINA MOBILE LTD 42.82   0.0 0.00 1.75 4.15
KEYCORP 18.03   10.7 1.68 0.74 4.08
LEGG MASON 39.76   0.0 -0.66 1.60 4.03
NOBLE 1.96   0.0 -1.36 0.00 3.94
INVESTORS REAL ESTATE 71.99   0.0 0.00 2.80 3.93
WATSCO 169.19   26.4 6.41 6.40 3.88
REGIONS FINANCIAL 16.25   10.1 1.61 0.62 3.87
PFIZER 37.28   17.0 2.19 1.44 3.85
VILLAGE SUPER MARKET 26.10   15.1 1.73 1.00 3.83
CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST SBI MD 29.55   20.0 1.48 1.10 3.70
BB&T 52.79   13.1 4.04 1.80 3.51
BOARDWALK PIPELINE 11.27   9.7 1.16 0.40 3.45
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP 28.03   9.5 2.94 0.96 3.44
WESBANCO 37.41   12.5 3.00 1.24 3.44
SUNTRUST BANKS 68.16   12.0 5.68 2.24 3.38
KINROSS GOLD 4.73   473.0 0.01 0.00 3.31
FULTON FINANCIAL 16.74   12.1 1.38 0.52 3.20
STATE STREET 60.27   10.9 5.51 1.88 3.20
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL 37.56   11.1 3.39 1.20 3.16
S&T BANCORP 37.23   12.1 3.07 1.08 3.04
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP 17.77   13.7 1.30 0.52 3.01
COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV 61.42   16.8 3.66 1.86 2.99
UDR 48.03   84.3 0.57 1.37 2.86
FASTENAL 33.63   25.1 1.34 0.88 2.68
COPA 101.57   101.6 1.00 2.60 2.60
TEEKAY 4.42   0.0 -1.53 0.11 2.53
LINCOLN NATIONAL 60.32   8.6 7.05 1.48 2.48
BANK OF AMERICA 29.67   10.6 2.80 0.72 2.45
ENSCO 8.27   0.0 -6.35 0.16 2.20
CONOCOPHILLIPS 56.35   9.1 6.20 1.22 2.17
AVERY DENNISON 113.00   41.1 2.75 2.32 2.04
ASTRAZENECA 42.90   49.3 0.87 0.88 2.03
FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD 10.37   23.6 0.44 0.20 1.98
NOBLE ENERGY 24.64   0.0 -1.92 0.48 1.98
KKR & CO LP 28.05   10.7 2.63 0.50 1.86
TRANSALTA 6.55   0.0 -0.73 0.12 1.83
CIMAREX ENERGY 44.31   7.1 6.21 0.80 1.78
RANGE RESOURCES 4.38   0.0 -6.49 0.08 1.77
ANADARKO PETROLEUM 72.77   0.0 -1.19 1.20 1.65
LA-Z-BOY CHAIR 33.05   23.0 1.44 0.52 1.61
ENCANA 4.68   4.0 1.16 0.08 1.60
CENOVUS ENERGY 9.50   59.4 0.16 0.15 1.58
DEVON ENERGY 24.56   3.0 8.07 0.36 1.47
STURM RUGER & CO 44.41   19.3 2.30 0.56 1.27
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND 7.31   5.3 1.37 0.09 1.26
MASCO 43.19   17.8 2.43 0.48 1.13
NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES 95.11   0.0 0.00 1.00 1.13
TEXTAINER GROUP 10.77   19.6 0.55 0.00 1.11
VULCAN MATERIALS 144.91   34.3 4.23 1.24 0.87
GOLDCORP 11.19   0.0 -4.77 0.00 0.70
GULF ISLAND FABRICATION 6.24   0.0 -1.58 0.04 0.63
YAMANA GOLD 3.30   0.0 -0.14 0.04 0.60
GENERAL ELECTRIC 9.26   0.0 -2.15 0.04 0.44
GAMCO INVESTORS 19.85   5.5 3.61 0.08 0.41
NRG ENERGY 38.29   17.5 2.19 0.12 0.32
ENERGEN 70.21   16.2 4.33 0.00 0.12
HUSKY ENERGY 7.07   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
PDL BIOPHARMA 2.37   7.9 0.30 0.00 0.00
POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN 20.65   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
RENT-A-CENTER 25.50   12.1 2.10 1.00 0.00
SEADRILL 3.08   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
SUPERVALU 32.49   98.4 0.33 0.00 0.00

BRISTOW GROUP - BRS
BRISTOW GROUP - BRS  


Older articles featuring Bristow Group (BRS):
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/30/2016
12 Months Of High-Yield Bond Reviews From Durig Capital - The Recap
Dividends In Danger? Let's Restart This Series
Dividend Champions 100th Edition
Sampling Dividend Cuts In February 2016
Dividend Cuts Piling Up
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/28/2015
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 6/3/2015
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 11/25/2014
Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend on 8/27/2014

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