Published Wed, 13 Jun 2018 08:29:57 -0400 on Seeking Alpha
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates today, a policy move that may further squeeze the difference between short and long Treasury yields. If the already narrow rate spread continues to tighten, the ongoing slide will raise new questions about the outlook for the US economy, at least in the eyes of some economists and investors.
Smaller rate spreads that go negative have historically been linked with recessions. The latest economic numbers betray no sign that a new downturn is imminent. Nonetheless, the market will be listening for any insight offered on the subject in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference today that follows the release of the central bank's policy statement at 2:00 pm eastern.
In his March presser, Powell raised questions about the value of the yield curve for evaluating recession risk. Other Fed officials have delivered similar remarks. Is a repeat performance on tap for today?
The subject is sure to come up, in part because Powell's comments were on the yield curve were brief. Journalists are sure to raise the topic anew, if only because the rate spread has continued to slide since the Fed chairman talked with the press on March 21. At the time, the difference for the 10-year Treasury yield less its 2-year counterpart was a thin 58 basis points, which has subsequently narrowed to 42 basis points as of Tuesday (June 12), based on daily data via Treausry.gov.
If and when the curve turns... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|VANGUARD EXTENDED DURATION TREASURY ETF||121.58||0.0||0.00||0.00||2.70|
|SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL 1-3 MONTH T-BILL ETF|
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