Published Fri, 30 Nov 2018 14:27:11 -0500 on Seeking Alpha
Keeping Investors Puzzled
Jerome Powell has done it again.
This time, it wasn't an official FOMC meeting, but the release of the Fed's financial stability report ("FSR"), combined with Mr. Powell's remarks, was enough to leave investors more puzzled than they were before.
What is the Fed mostly worried about?
Aside of the historically prices across many assets - commercial real estate (VNQ, IYR, REM, MORT, SCHH, KBWY, XLRE, RWR), housing (PKB, XHB, ITB, AIRR), farmland (DBA, RJA), the Fed is mostly worried about two things:
Several participants were concerned that the high level of debt in the nonfinancial business sector, and especially the high level of leveraged loans, made the economy more vulnerable to a sharp pullback in credit availability. - FOMC minutes from its November 7-8 meeting.
1. Amount of borrowing.
The Fed is worried about historically-high corporate leverage levels (BKLN, SRLN, FTSL, SNLN)
2. Credit quality (concentrated among low-credit-risk borrowers.)
Powell warns of a tsunami of junk rated debt (HYG, JNK, AWF) as the share of investment-grade debt classified at the low end of the range has "reached near-record levels". Borrowers will "surely face distress if the economy turned down."
The Fed also sees near-term risks from:
the UK (EWU) Brexit European/Eurozone (VGK, EZU, HEDJ, FEZ) fiscal/budget challenges China (MCHI, FXI) level of debt, economic growth and... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|NUVEEN REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND||10.71||0.0||0.00||0.00||6.99|
|ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN GLOBAL HIGH INCOME FUND||11.78||0.0||0.00||0.00||6.68|
|RMR REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND||20.04||0.0||0.00||0.00||6.66|
|COHEN & STEERS TOTAL RETURN REALTY FUND||14.98||0.0||0.00||0.00||6.56|
|COHEN & STEERS REIT||23.56||0.0||0.00||0.00||6.38|
|COHEN & STEERS QUALITY INCOME REALTY FUND||15.60||0.0||0.00||0.00||6.30|
|TCW STRATEGIC INCOME FUND||5.78||0.0||0.00||0.37||6.29|
|SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL HIGH YIELD BOND ETF||108.94||0.0||0.00||6.07||5.58|
|ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND FUND||87.32||0.0||0.00||4.60||5.27|
|FIRST TRUST/FIDAC MORTGAGE INCOME FUND||13.75||0.0||0.00||0.00||5.22|
|VANGUARD EMERGING MARKETS ETF||41.97||0.0||0.00||1.09||2.64|
|SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF TRUST||272.32||0.0||0.00||5.67||2.10|
|ISHARES BARCLAYS TIPS BOND FUND||115.82||0.0||0.00||2.15||1.85|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF||301.29||0.0||0.00||5.42||1.82|
|POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES 1||193.23||0.0||0.00||1.49||0.78|
|ISHARES COHEN & STEERS REALTY MAJORS INDEX FUND||118.41||0.0||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|ISHARES FTSE NAREIT MORTG PLUS CAPPED INDEX FUND||41.97||0.0||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|ISHARES BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND FUND|
|VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET ETF|
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