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Jussi Askola Positions For 2019: High-Yield Landlording

Published Sat, 12 Jan 2019 09:00:00 -0500 on Seeking Alpha

Last November, I had the pleasure to attend the Nordic Real Estate Conference in Tallinn, Estonia. It is an annual conference that gathers market leaders from all over Europe, the Nordics and the Baltics to discuss global trends in the real estate markets. Numerous REIT executives, fund managers, and even the Estonian minister of finance were present to share their perception of today's investment markets. Not surprisingly, a great deal of time was spent discussing the items mentioned below.
Where Are We in the Cycle?
We are now over 10 years into the expansion, unemployment is below 3.9% for the first time since 1969 and investors are rightfully asking themselves how long this can last:

Source: Author's picture, Booklet of NREC
Such low unemployment rates are commonly achieved towards the very end of a cycle and shortly followed by a downturn. Market intelligence point out that our current cycle is already stretched and approaching its end. Most conference participants believed that we still have 1-2 good years before a slowdown in the global economy. The U.S. tax stimulus boosted the current cycle, but the inevitable slowdown is only pushed forward by 1-2 years. The tight labor market, risk of inflation, trade wars and growing populism are putting increasing pressure on the current cycle. You will never get timing perfectly right, but if history has any value, now is the time to become more prudent.
What do you expect to be the key driver of stock... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
CBL & ASSOCIATES PROPERTIES 0.92   0.0 -0.95 0.30 27.52
WP GLIMCHER 3.55   11.4 0.31 1.00 26.74
MACERICH 32.95   47.1 0.70 3.00 8.92
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP 159.39   20.8 7.65 8.20 5.06
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH 18.60   13.1 1.42 0.80 4.32


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