Published Sun, 31 Mar 2019 07:29:25 -0400 on Seeking Alpha
A Run For The Highs Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are "killing it."
However, you didn't.
Despite all of the media "hoopla" about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year.
That is, assuming you didn't "sell the bottom" in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many.
If we deconstruct the ratio, we can see the rotation a bit better
Not surprisingly, historically speaking, investors had their peak stock exposure before the market cycle peak. As the market had its first stumble, investors sold. When the market bounces, investors are initially reluctant to chase it. However, as the rally continues, the "fear of missing out or F.O.M.O" eventually forces them back into the market. This is how bear market rallies work; they inflict the most pain possible on investors both on the bounce and then on the way back down.
However, for the moment, we are still in the midst of a bear market rally. This will be the case until the market breaks out to new highs. Only then can we confirm the previous consolidation is complete and the bull market has been re-established.
The good news is on a very short-term basis, the market IS INDEED bullishly biased and coming off an extremely strong first-quarter rally. The current... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|CORNERSTONE TOTAL RETURN FUND||11.38||0.0||0.00||2.48||22.00|
|PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500||25.26||0.0||0.00||0.00||2.32|
|VANGUARD EXTENDED DURATION TREASURY ETF||137.28||0.0||0.00||0.00||2.29|
|SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF TRUST||272.32||0.0||0.00||5.67||2.10|
|PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500||28.97||0.0||0.00||0.00||1.97|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF||301.29||0.0||0.00||5.42||1.82|
|POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES 1||193.23||0.0||0.00||1.49||0.78|
|SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL 1-3 MONTH T-BILL ETF|
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