Published Wed, 10 Apr 2019 06:00:00 -0400 on Seeking Alpha
(Source: "Market's Favorite Recession Indicator Lurches Lower in New Year")
The investment world and the financial medias are abuzz with the USD yield curve and its growing flattening/inversion, and for good reasons. Here is why the inversion is so important - it augurs glooming times.
Portfolio modeling and selection of the best predictors
Any investment decision should be grounded in solid market or economic information, not in the investor’s last emotion. This is true no matter which investment segment the portfolio manager is in.
In global macro / asset allocation, CIOs use econometric information (GDP, growth, balances, unemployment, PPP...), as well as market information (FX rates, interest curves, index P/E...) to decide their asset class allocation.
In discretionary equities, portfolio managers ground their analysis in corporate fundamental information (cash flow models, ratios, balance sheet metrics and their growths), more qualitative information (business strategy, management quality, relative positioning, provider and client data, new products) and many types of market and economic information.
Statistical arbitragers use technical information (momentum, acceleration, volatility, oscillators...), fundamental information (ratios, cash flows, balance sheet statements...) and pretty much any data source they can put their hands on.
What differs between these various investors is the type of information they use, how they convert the information... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|CORNERSTONE TOTAL RETURN FUND||11.38||0.0||0.00||2.48||22.00|
|LIBERTY ALL STAR EQUITY FUND||6.38||0.0||0.00||0.65||10.30|
|PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500||25.26||0.0||0.00||0.00||2.32|
|SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF TRUST||272.32||0.0||0.00||5.67||2.10|
|PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500||28.97||0.0||0.00||0.00||1.97|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF||301.29||0.0||0.00||5.42||1.82|
|POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES 1||193.23||0.0||0.00||1.49||0.78|
Older articles featuring Cornerstone Total Return Fund (CRF):This May Not Be Your Father's Inverted Yield Curve
Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending
Negative-Yielding Debt: Monetary Contagion Spreads
The Dollar, High-Yield Bond Market And S&P 500 Revenue Growth
Two Yield Spreads Are Better Than One For Business Cycle Analysis
Equity CEFs: Where's The Beef In The Delaware Dividend & Income Fund?
When A Yield Curve Inversion Means Recession
Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said...
Is The U.S. Yield Curve Signaling A U.S. Recession?
Short And Sharp: Yield Curve Inversion - A False Positive?