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Of Slopes And Flops: The Yield Curve Inversion

Published Wed, 10 Apr 2019 06:00:00 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

(Source: "Market's Favorite Recession Indicator Lurches Lower in New Year")
The investment world and the financial medias are abuzz with the USD yield curve and its growing flattening/inversion, and for good reasons. Here is why the inversion is so important - it augurs glooming times.
Portfolio modeling and selection of the best predictors
Any investment decision should be grounded in solid market or economic information, not in the investor’s last emotion. This is true no matter which investment segment the portfolio manager is in.
In global macro / asset allocation, CIOs use econometric information (GDP, growth, balances, unemployment, PPP...), as well as market information (FX rates, interest curves, index P/E...) to decide their asset class allocation.
In discretionary equities, portfolio managers ground their analysis in corporate fundamental information (cash flow models, ratios, balance sheet metrics and their growths), more qualitative information (business strategy, management quality, relative positioning, provider and client data, new products) and many types of market and economic information.
Statistical arbitragers use technical information (momentum, acceleration, volatility, oscillators...), fundamental information (ratios, cash flows, balance sheet statements...) and pretty much any data source they can put their hands on.
What differs between these various investors is the type of information they use, how they convert the information... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
CORNERSTONE TOTAL RETURN FUND 11.38   0.0 0.00 2.48 22.00
ZWEIG FUND 10.98   0.0 0.00 1.44 13.14
LIBERTY ALL STAR EQUITY FUND 6.38   0.0 0.00 0.65 10.30
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500 25.26   0.0 0.00 0.00 2.32
SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF TRUST 272.32   0.0 0.00 5.67 2.10
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500 28.97   0.0 0.00 0.00 1.97
SPDR S&P 500 ETF 301.29   0.0 0.00 5.42 1.82
POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 193.23   0.0 0.00 1.49 0.78

CORNERSTONE TOTAL RETURN FUND - CRF
CORNERSTONE TOTAL RETURN FUND - CRF  


Older articles featuring Cornerstone Total Return Fund (CRF):
Bear Market Thoughts: Is Closed-End Fund Investing 'Chasing Yield?'
Income Lab Ideas: Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Dividends By The Numbers In January 2020
Stocks Yielding More Than Bonds Again
A Steeper Yield Curve Should Benefit Financial Stocks
Dividend Yields Around The World
Dividends By The Numbers In October 2019
Yield Curve Disinversion
Bond Market History: When The Yield Curve Un-Inverts
Why Does A Yield Curve Inversion Suggest A Recession?

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