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Fully Assessing AGNC Investment's Results For Q1 2019 (Includes May-July 2019 Dividend Projection)

Published Fri, 03 May 2019 14:32:51 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

Introduction/Recap:
On 4/24/2019, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) reported results for the first quarter of 2019. AGNC reported net income of $265 million, other comprehensive income (“OCI”) of $400 million, comprehensive (total) income of $665 million, a non-tangible book value (“BV”) as of 3/31/2019 of $18.21 per common share, and a tangible BV as of 3/31/2019 of $17.23 per common share.
In PART 3 of my AGNC Q1 2019 income statement and EPS projection article, I projected the company would report the following amounts in relation to the first quarter of 2019: 1) net loss of ($9) million; 2) OCI of $390 million; and 3) comprehensive income of $381 million. In my prior AGNC Q1 2019 and 4/12/2019 BV projection article, I projected the company would report a non-tangible and tangible BV as of 3/31/2019 of $17.70 and $16.75 per common share, respectively.
While I correctly projected AGNC would report an increase in BV during the first quarter of 2019, the actual amount of the company’s increase was larger than I anticipated. This modest BV outperformance mainly stemmed from two key factors/decisions made by management which will be discussed, in detail, later in the article.
For readers mainly focused on dividend metrics, AGNC reported net spread and dollar roll income (when excluding any “catch up” premium amortization) of $279 million or $0.52 per common share for the first quarter of 2019. In comparison, I projected AGNC would report net spread and dollar... Read more

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NEW RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT 14.98   18.0 0.83 2.00 13.28
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST 6.14   12.0 0.51 0.80 12.74
ARMOUR RESIDENTIAL REIT 17.26   0.0 -9.30 2.04 12.03
TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT 13.28   0.0 -2.81 1.60 12.02
AG MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST 17.47   6.1 2.87 1.90 10.89
BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST 36.16   14.5 2.49 2.48 6.94
CAPSTEAD MORTGAGE 7.41   0.0 -0.86 0.48 6.58
BLACKROCK 434.75   16.5 26.34 13.20 3.08
ISHARES FTSE NAREIT MORTG PLUS CAPPED INDEX FUND 41.97   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00