Dividend-News

Daily dividend news for investors in dividend stocks


Resolving The Contradictory Signal Between The Yield Curve And Housing: Watch Corporate Profits

Published Tue, 28 May 2019 20:42:27 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

Introduction Is your favored metric housing or the yield curve? Depending on which one you prefer, the economy is either careening towards recession or else “no worries.” Because the two very important leading metrics are giving completely different signals this spring. Is there a way to break the tie? I think there is, and I’ll explore it below.
The yield curve has not been a perfect indicator
Let’s start with the yield curve. At present everything between the Fed Funds rate and the three-year-bond is inverted (and largely has been for almost 6 months). The 5-, 7-, and 10-year treasuries are also inverted as against all maturities shorter than one year. On the contrary, the 20- and 30-year maturities are not inverted vs. short-term maturities, and from the 5-year maturity out, the yield curve is normal. I’ve depicted these several maturities in the graph below:

I want to emphasize something important: none of these individual yield curve metrics is perfect. For example, the long end inverted for almost the last 1/2 of the entire 1960s, but only inverted for about one month before the “Great Recession”:

The 10-year minus three-month spread also inverted slightly in 1966, but just as importantly failed to invert at all before the 1990-91 recession:

Short-Term maturities also inverted in 1966 and several times in the 1980s and 1990s:

Indeed, most maturities registered a false positive in both 1966 and 1998.
... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
NUVEEN REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND 10.71   0.0 0.00 0.00 6.99
RMR REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND 20.04   0.0 0.00 0.00 6.66
COHEN & STEERS TOTAL RETURN REALTY FUND 14.98   0.0 0.00 0.00 6.56
COHEN & STEERS REIT 23.56   0.0 0.00 0.00 6.38
COHEN & STEERS QUALITY INCOME REALTY FUND 15.60   0.0 0.00 0.00 6.30
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500 25.26   0.0 0.00 0.00 2.32
SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF TRUST 272.32   0.0 0.00 5.67 2.10
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500 28.97   0.0 0.00 0.00 1.97
SPDR S&P 500 ETF 301.29   0.0 0.00 5.42 1.82
POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 193.23   0.0 0.00 1.49 0.78
ISHARES COHEN & STEERS REALTY MAJORS INDEX FUND 118.41   0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00

NUVEEN REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND - JRS
NUVEEN REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND - JRS  


Older articles featuring Nuveen Real Estate Income Fund (JRS):
Infrastructure REITs: A Match Made In Low Yield Environment Heaven
Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF: A Solution In Search Of A Problem?
Yield Hunter CEF Report March 2019: Distribution Cuts Pick Up, But So Do Increases
Barron's Says To Buy MLPs In 2019, Yet Its Best Yield Plays Favor Vodafone
Will Rates/Yields Peak Soon?
100 High-Yielders Down Big: These 5 Are Worth Considering
Housing History And Why The Yield Curve Got So Flat
Mortgage Rates Head To 6%, 10-Year Yield To 4%, Yield Curve Fails To 'Invert,' And Fed Keeps Hiking
Want To Be A High Yield Landlord? Hop Aboard The REIT Income Train
The Chemist's CEF Report - July 2018: Treasury Yield Spread Continues To Narrow

More