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The Retirees' Dividend Portfolio - John And Jane's June Taxable Account Update: The Danger Of Making Assumptions

Published Wed, 17 Jul 2019 12:45:02 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

Introduction
Assumptions can be a useful tool when trying to examine the impact of a hypothetical scenario, especially when investing. For instance, it would be necessary to use assumptions when forecasting expected dividend income. When I perform a task like this, I like to establish a range that I can reasonably expect will occur.
Worst-case scenario Baseline scenario Above-average scenario The point of making different assumptions is to build a range that we expect our true scenario will fit into. I consider these type of assumptions to be useful because its primary goal is to help the investor set reasonable expectations about what is likely going to happen.
At the same time, assumptions can be dangerous when we rely on them to explain complicated situations that are often the result of a multitude of factors. In many cases, assumptions are used as a form of confirmation bias that provides the kind of blind support we need to justify our position/stance.
Consider the old saying of "taking someone at their word" which means that we assume the person's words mean exactly what they are and that there is no ulterior motive or underlying meaning behind them. If someone tells you they need a ride to the airport it would be most appropriate to assume that they mean what they say because they are saying what they mean (and that means a ride to the airport does not mean anything else). Making assumptions like this is something that the human mind considers reasonable and is... Read more

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NEW RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT 14.48   17.4 0.83 2.00 14.14
MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE 38.15   32.9 1.16 4.00 10.57
TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CENTERS 14.55   18.9 0.77 1.42 9.94
ARBOR REALTY TRUST 12.48   8.9 1.40 1.16 9.25
WESTLAKE CHEMICAL PARTNERS LP 21.56   13.5 1.60 1.83 8.53
IRON MOUNTAIN 31.65   26.4 1.20 2.44 7.79
HELMERICH & PAYNE 39.04   0.0 -0.68 2.84 7.29
ALTRIA GROUP 46.41   13.8 3.36 3.20 6.92
BP 36.21   13.7 2.64 2.44 6.64
ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS 28.16   12.2 2.31 1.76 6.01
EPR PROPERTIES 76.08   22.5 3.38 4.50 5.96
SCHLUMBERGER 33.71   22.5 1.50 2.00 5.90
AT&T 34.82   14.6 2.38 2.04 5.80
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP 148.70   19.9 7.48 8.40 5.69
EXXON MOBIL 67.49   16.3 4.15 3.48 4.99
RYDER SYSTEM 48.73   8.1 6.03 2.24 4.70
WP CAREY & CO 88.66   31.3 2.83 4.14 4.68
LTC PROPERTIES 49.54   18.6 2.67 2.28 4.65
WELLS FARGO 45.62   9.4 4.84 2.04 4.57
CARDINAL HEALTH 42.79   9.5 4.51 1.92 4.42
WASHINGTON TRUST BANCORP 45.62   11.5 3.98 2.04 4.33
SOUTHERN COMPANY 58.45   13.7 4.28 2.48 4.30
VERIZON COMM 56.78   14.8 3.83 2.41 4.28
LEGGETT PLATT 39.08   18.2 2.15 1.60 4.15
CHEVRON 115.18   14.9 7.72 4.76 4.04
REALTY INCOME 73.07   55.8 1.31 2.72 3.75
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND 37.43   16.1 2.33 1.40 3.71
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL 22.80   9.2 2.48 0.80 3.64
GENERAL MILLS 54.68   18.9 2.90 1.96 3.61
MESABI TRUST 22.83   6.8 3.37 0.84 3.57
CUMMINS 142.02   8.7 16.38 5.24 3.55
EMERSON ELECTRIC 57.00   16.2 3.52 1.96 3.35
JPMORGAN CHASE 108.72   11.1 9.79 3.60 2.98
CLOROX 155.93   24.6 6.34 4.24 2.68
JOHNSON CONTROLS 42.13   6.4 6.57 1.04 2.45
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL 42.13   6.4 6.57 1.04 2.45
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS 120.29   22.0 5.47 3.08 2.44
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES 127.96   20.9 6.13 2.94 2.32
PARKER HANNIFIN 164.45   14.4 11.46 3.52 2.15
DOVER 88.10   21.6 4.08 1.96 2.09
HORMEL FOODS 42.95   23.5 1.83 0.84 2.05
AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS 220.64   28.6 7.72 4.64 2.03
APPLE 202.64   17.3 11.73 3.08 1.45