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The Retirees' Dividend Portfolio - John And Jane's June Taxable Account Update: The Danger Of Making Assumptions

Published Wed, 17 Jul 2019 12:45:02 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

Introduction
Assumptions can be a useful tool when trying to examine the impact of a hypothetical scenario, especially when investing. For instance, it would be necessary to use assumptions when forecasting expected dividend income. When I perform a task like this, I like to establish a range that I can reasonably expect will occur.
Worst-case scenario Baseline scenario Above-average scenario The point of making different assumptions is to build a range that we expect our true scenario will fit into. I consider these type of assumptions to be useful because its primary goal is to help the investor set reasonable expectations about what is likely going to happen.
At the same time, assumptions can be dangerous when we rely on them to explain complicated situations that are often the result of a multitude of factors. In many cases, assumptions are used as a form of confirmation bias that provides the kind of blind support we need to justify our position/stance.
Consider the old saying of "taking someone at their word" which means that we assume the person's words mean exactly what they are and that there is no ulterior motive or underlying meaning behind them. If someone tells you they need a ride to the airport it would be most appropriate to assume that they mean what they say because they are saying what they mean (and that means a ride to the airport does not mean anything else). Making assumptions like this is something that the human mind considers reasonable and is... Read more

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NEW RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT 14.98   18.0 0.83 2.00 13.28
MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE 39.63   34.2 1.16 4.00 10.04
ARBOR REALTY TRUST 12.77   9.1 1.40 1.16 9.21
WESTLAKE CHEMICAL PARTNERS LP 21.72   13.6 1.60 1.83 8.44
TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CENTERS 16.50   21.4 0.77 1.42 8.35
IRON MOUNTAIN 34.14   28.4 1.20 2.44 7.29
ALTRIA GROUP 44.46   13.2 3.36 3.36 7.23
HELMERICH & PAYNE 40.76   0.0 -0.68 2.84 6.74
BP 37.67   14.3 2.64 2.44 6.45
ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS 28.68   12.4 2.31 1.76 6.13
EPR PROPERTIES 77.15   22.8 3.38 4.50 5.84
AT&T 38.38   16.1 2.38 2.04 5.43
SCHLUMBERGER 36.90   24.6 1.50 2.00 5.34
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP 155.27   20.8 7.48 8.40 5.21
EXXON MOBIL 71.98   17.3 4.15 3.48 4.83
WP CAREY & CO 88.72   31.4 2.83 4.14 4.73
LTC PROPERTIES 49.71   18.6 2.67 2.28 4.63
WASHINGTON TRUST BANCORP 50.06   12.6 3.98 2.04 4.22
WELLS FARGO 48.65   10.0 4.84 2.04 4.22
SOUTHERN COMPANY 59.99   14.0 4.28 2.48 4.19
RYDER SYSTEM 53.25   8.8 6.03 2.24 4.15
VERIZON COMM 60.43   15.8 3.83 2.46 4.04
CARDINAL HEALTH 48.48   10.8 4.51 1.92 4.01
CHEVRON 121.42   15.7 7.72 4.76 3.91
LEGGETT PLATT 42.18   19.6 2.15 1.60 3.82
REALTY INCOME 74.49   56.9 1.31 2.72 3.69
GENERAL MILLS 54.09   18.6 2.90 1.96 3.59
MESABI TRUST 24.73   7.3 3.37 0.84 3.57
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL 22.80   9.2 2.48 0.80 3.57
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND 41.45   17.8 2.33 1.40 3.47
CUMMINS 165.05   10.1 16.38 5.24 3.20
EMERSON ELECTRIC 64.71   18.4 3.52 1.96 3.02
JPMORGAN CHASE 117.91   12.0 9.79 3.60 2.74
CLOROX 160.20   25.3 6.34 4.24 2.68
JOHNSON CONTROLS 44.30   6.7 6.57 1.04 2.42
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL 44.30   6.7 6.57 1.04 2.42
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS 130.22   23.8 5.47 3.08 2.42
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES 137.46   22.4 6.13 2.94 2.20
AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS 220.67   28.6 7.72 4.64 2.17
DOVER 99.67   24.4 4.08 1.96 2.02
PARKER HANNIFIN 181.60   15.8 11.46 3.52 1.94
HORMEL FOODS 44.00   24.3 1.81 0.84 1.92
APPLE 223.08   19.0 11.73 3.08 1.42