Published Wed, 17 Jul 2019 12:45:02 -0400 on Seeking Alpha
Assumptions can be a useful tool when trying to examine the impact of a hypothetical scenario, especially when investing. For instance, it would be necessary to use assumptions when forecasting expected dividend income. When I perform a task like this, I like to establish a range that I can reasonably expect will occur.
Worst-case scenario Baseline scenario Above-average scenario The point of making different assumptions is to build a range that we expect our true scenario will fit into. I consider these type of assumptions to be useful because its primary goal is to help the investor set reasonable expectations about what is likely going to happen.
At the same time, assumptions can be dangerous when we rely on them to explain complicated situations that are often the result of a multitude of factors. In many cases, assumptions are used as a form of confirmation bias that provides the kind of blind support we need to justify our position/stance.
Consider the old saying of "taking someone at their word" which means that we assume the person's words mean exactly what they are and that there is no ulterior motive or underlying meaning behind them. If someone tells you they need a ride to the airport it would be most appropriate to assume that they mean what they say because they are saying what they mean (and that means a ride to the airport does not mean anything else). Making assumptions like this is something that the human mind considers reasonable and is... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|NEW RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT||14.48||17.4||0.83||2.00||14.14|
|TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CENTERS||14.55||18.9||0.77||1.42||9.94|
|ARBOR REALTY TRUST||12.48||8.9||1.40||1.16||9.25|
|WESTLAKE CHEMICAL PARTNERS LP||21.56||13.5||1.60||1.83||8.53|
|HELMERICH & PAYNE||39.04||0.0||-0.68||2.84||7.29|
|SIMON PROPERTY GROUP||148.70||19.9||7.48||8.40||5.69|
|WP CAREY & CO||88.66||31.3||2.83||4.14||4.68|
|WASHINGTON TRUST BANCORP||45.62||11.5||3.98||2.04||4.33|
|OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL||22.80||9.2||2.48||0.80||3.64|
|JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL||42.13||6.4||6.57||1.04||2.45|
|AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS||220.64||28.6||7.72||4.64||2.03|
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