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S&P 500 'Earnings Yield' Back To 6% With New Quarter

Published Mon, 07 Oct 2019 16:01:05 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

The 4-quarter or "forward 4-quarter estimate" for the S&P 500 after rolling into October is $175.49, which now covers the period from Q4 '19 to Q3 '20.
This compares to last week's forward estimate of $170.58, which covered the period from Q3 '18 to Q2 '20.
The final "bottom-up" actual EPS for the S&P 500 for Q2 '19 was $41.31.
Here is the actual "upside surprise" factors for the S&P 500 quarterly estimate the last 6 quarters:

Note how both Q4 '18 and Q2 '19's "surprise" was weaker than normal.
IBES by Refinitiv estimates that over long periods of time, the "upside surprise" (which is really the upward revision in the dollar estimate from the first day of the quarter's reports to the last day) is typically 3%-5%.
S&P 500 Earnings (by the numbers):
Fwd 4-qtr est: $175.49 PE ratio: 17x PEG ratio: 15x S&P 500 earnings yield: +5.94% vs. last week's 5.76% Y-y growth of Fwd est: 1.08% vs. last week's 1.10% TTM est: $162.86 (this number now includes Q3 '19 back through Q4 '18) TTM PE: 18x TTM PEG: 2x S&P 500 earnings yield: 5.52% Y-y growth of TTM est: 7.76% vs. last week's +3.82% Summary/conclusion: The two metrics that jumped out in preparing today's report was the S&P 500 earnings yield at 5.94% (let's say 6% - close enough for government work) and the y/y growth in the TTM (trailing twelve-month) estimate of 7.76%.
Forward earnings expectations or the "forward 4-quarter" estimated growth remained very subdued, so the... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
SPDR S&P 500 ETF 301.29   0.0 0.00 5.42 1.82

SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY  

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