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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Yield Curve Boosts Long-Term Forecast, Consumer Still Solid

Published Sat, 12 Oct 2019 07:03:00 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A Note on Methodology
Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.
A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.
Where data is seasonally adjusted, generally it's scored positively if it's within the top 1/3 of that range, negative in the bottom 1/3, and neutral in between. Where it's not seasonally adjusted, and there are seasonal issues, waiting for the YoY change to change sign will lag the turning point. Thus I make use of a convention: Data is scored neutral if it's less than 1/2 as positive/negative as at its 12-month extreme.
With long leading indicators, which by definition turn at least 12 months before a turning point in the economy as a whole, there's an additional rule: Data is automatically... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500 25.26   0.0 0.00 0.00 2.32
SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ETF TRUST 272.32   0.0 0.00 5.67 2.10
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P 500 28.97   0.0 0.00 0.00 1.97
SPDR S&P 500 ETF 301.29   0.0 0.00 5.42 1.82
POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 193.23   0.0 0.00 1.49 0.78

PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500 - SPXU
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500 - SPXU  


Older articles featuring Proshares Ultrapro Short S&p 500 (SPXU):
Dividend Watch: A Bar Bet You Will Win
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Lag In This Down Market
The Negative EPS And Dividend Revision Cycle Has Only Just Begun
S&P 500 Dividend Yield Vs. 10-Year Yield Blowout
Dividend Watch: Increases Still Outnumber Decreases
Uncertainty Will Yield To Opportunity After Testing Resolve - Market Commentary April 2, 2020
The 2-10 Yield Curve And The Shape Of Things To Come
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Jumps To 6.37%
OpenMarkets Weekly: Why Are 10-Year Yields So Low?
Equities Will See Short-Term Volatility, But Treasury Yields Make No Sense

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