Published Wed, 18 Mar 2020 05:38:06 -0400 on Seeking Alpha
Part 1 of this article compares NLY’s recent investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, quarterly BV, economic return, and current valuation to twenty mREIT peers.
Providing sector-wide metrics allows readers to better understand which mREIT companies will likely outperform (or underperform) peers during specific types of interest rate environments.
Part 1 also performs a detailed analysis of NLY’s MBS and derivatives portfolios as of 12/31/2019. This includes NLY’s projected performance during the first quarter of 2020 (through 3/13/2020).
My buy, sell, or hold recommendation, current BV projection (BV as of 3/13/2020), and updated price target for NLY is in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.
As a direct result of the recent notable sector sell-off, many stocks (including NLY) are now attractively-very attractively priced (especially agency mREITs).
Focus of Article:
The focus of PART 1 of this article is to analyze Annaly Capital Management Inc.’s (NLY) recent results and compare several of the company’s metrics to twenty mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers. This analysis will show past and current data with supporting documentation within three tables. Table 1 will compare NLY’s mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”)/investment composition, recent leverage, hedging coverage ratio, BV, and economic return (loss) to the twenty mREIT peers. Table 1 will also provide a premium (discount) to estimated CURRENT BV analysis using stock prices as of 3/13/2020. Table 2 will show a quarterly compositional analysis of NLY’s agency MBS portfolio while Table 3 will show the company’s recent hedging coverage ratio over the past two quarters.
I am writing this two-part article due to the continued requests that such an analysis be specifically performed on NLY versus its mREIT peers at periodic intervals. This article also discusses the importance of understanding the composition of NLY’s... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|ORCHID ISLAND CAPITAL||5.58||0.0||-0.29||0.96||17.75|
|ARLINGTON ASSET INVESTMENT||5.55||0.0||-1.21||0.90||16.58|
|CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT||13.52||0.0||-3.91||1.60||14.40|
|NEW RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT||14.98||18.0||0.83||2.00||13.28|
|ANWORTH MORTGAGE ASSET||3.39||0.0||-0.98||0.44||13.17|
|NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST||6.14||12.0||0.51||0.80||12.74|
|WESTERN ASSET MORTGAGE CAPITAL||9.83||10.7||0.92||1.24||12.58|
|AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY||15.64||0.0||-1.54||1.92||12.21|
|ARMOUR RESIDENTIAL REIT||17.26||0.0||-9.30||2.04||12.03|
|TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT||13.28||0.0||-2.81||1.60||12.02|
|INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL||15.18||0.0||-1.01||1.80||11.80|
|AG MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST||17.47||6.1||2.87||1.90||10.89|
|PENNYMAC MORTGAGE INV TRUST||22.24||9.5||2.35||1.88||8.50|
|BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST||36.16||14.5||2.49||2.48||6.94|
|ISHARES FTSE NAREIT MORTG PLUS CAPPED INDEX FUND||41.97||0.0||0.00||0.00||0.00|
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