Published Fri, 20 Mar 2020 04:48:08 -0400 on Seeking Alpha
Any pandemic will have an important impact on the economy, and we are talking about several billions. This outbreak comes at a time where everybody expects a market bubble to burst.
The strongest signal the market received last week was to see the central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada cutting their rates by not the classic 25 basis points, but by 50 points.
Selling because you are losing money should never be your sole motive, because you are then letting your emotions govern your investments instead of your brain.
In September 2017, I received slightly over $100K as a result of the commuted value of my pension plan. I decided to invest 100% of this money into dividend growth stocks. Each month, I publish my results. I don't do this to brag. I do this to show you it is possible to build a portfolio during an all-time high market... and stay confident during a hectic one! In the meantime, I enjoy cashing some juicy and consistent dividends!
The Scary Narrative
Please note that this article was prepared on March 6th before the bell. Of course, much more has occured since then, but the narrative is still the same.
The scary narrative is easy to understand: the virus is clogging our economy faster than it clogs our lungs. While we can all understand how any virus can slowdown the economy, finding accurate numbers is quite a challenge. I did the exercise with the influenza, a virus we have known for decades. Even then, the information I found on the U.S. wasn't conclusive.
Molinari et al. indicated that the short-term costs and long-term burdens of seasonal influenza can amount to $26.8-87.1 billion a year (source).
While indirect costs are hard to calculate, most sources tend to agree the direct cost on the healthcare system is between $10 billion and $11 billion per year in the U.S. (source).
A study from the Society for Risk Analysis published in June 2016 estimated the potential GDP loss of a pandemic outbreak to be... Read more
|Stock name||Last trade||P/E||Earnings/Share||Dividend/Share||Dividend yield|
|ROYAL BANK OF CANADA||78.79||11.9||6.61||3.16||4.00|
|UNITED PARCEL SERVICE||122.56||22.4||5.47||3.84||3.14|
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