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TPG RE Finance Trust: Upside & Downside Risk Defined For This 25% Yielding mREIT

Published Wed, 20 May 2020 09:53:40 -0400 on Seeking Alpha

TPG is an established and successful manager but its mortgage REIT has struggled and is down ~66% YTD. At lows, it lost nearly 90% of its value.
As we've recently done for Ares Capital and Blackstone Mortgage Trust, we occasionally share one of our marketplace articles with our public followers.
Ultimately, this is a high risk, high reward opportunity and this article's goal is to provide enough information and commentary to determine if it makes sense for you.
We tackle all the key aspects and risks associated with TPG RE Finance Trust in today's especially challenging environment.
We provided an in-depth analysis of TPG RE Finance Trust's (TRTX) Q1 earnings release for subscribers the day after the report was made available. The stock's performance year-to-date, widespread difficulties throughout the mortgage REIT sector, and notes made in TRTX's Q1 SEC filing concerning solvency concerns justified a deeper dive on this mortgage REIT. We are sharing an abbreviated but still comprehensive version of this article with our valued public followers.
Using The Right Lens Is Challenging But Necessary
'In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield'
'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get'
It is apropos to start with a few quotes from Warren Buffet. Many of Buffet's well known investing strategies focus on value, the pitfalls of hindsight, and avoiding overconfidence. These are points we've hammered home in many articles, including a few public ones.
In relation to TRTX, its intrinsic value is not derived from its current or past share price. It's not that this information has no value, it means we shouldn't let individual data points overwhelm or bias our analysis. Stocks that have declined by two thirds or more during a crisis inevitably spark an emotional reaction, and especially if it has been in your investment account. As difficult as it is, we must strive to evaluate investments based on... Read more

Stock name Last trade   P/E Earnings/Share Dividend/Share Dividend yield
BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST 36.16   14.5 2.49 2.48 6.94
MORGAN STANLEY 44.32   9.7 4.59 1.40 3.21
CITIGROUP 69.30   9.6 7.19 2.04 2.96
BANK OF AMERICA 29.67   10.6 2.80 0.72 2.45
GOLDMAN SACHS 218.74   9.2 23.84 5.00 2.32


Older articles featuring Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT):
Annaly Capital's BV, Dividend, And Valuation Vs. 20 mREIT Peers - Part 1 (Post Q2 2020 Earnings - Continued Attractive...
49 U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts Yield Over 6% In Late September
Dividend Hikes Lift REITs
Annaly: Still The Best 11% Yield To Own
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Declares $0.62 Per Share Dividend
George Soros Earning 10.2% Payout from This High-Yield Dividend Stock
Yield On Chimera Investment Preferreds Is Up, But So Is The Risk
Starwood Property Trust: A Very Large mREIT With A Very Large 13.8% Dividend Yield
Annaly Capital's Dividend, BV, And Valuation Vs. 20 mREIT Peers - Part 2 (Includes Q3-Q4 2020 Dividend Projection)
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Declares $0.62 Per Share Dividend